The countdown is on
Clinton, Trump leading 2016 lead presidential race, but nothing is certain until Nov. 8
The U.S. Presidential Election is less than two months away. After months of watching debates, political rallies, primaries and conventions, the people of America will vote for the candidate they think is best suited to be the next U.S. president. The question is, “Who has the best chance of winning?”
THE POLLS:
The three candidates, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnston, are not neck and neck in the forecast. According to FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton has roughly a 61.3 percent chance of winning. Trump trails behind with a 38.7 percent chance. Gary Johnston and Jill Stein are fighting to get in the race, but currently only have roughly a 0.1 percent chance of winning. Specifically in Pennsylvania, the majority vote leans towards Clinton by 3.7 percent. The chance of the majority vote changing to Trump in Pennsylvania is one of the highest among the other states, with an 11.2 percent chance.
The differentiating factor about this election is that both of the candidates have an extremely large amount of voters going against them. Both candidates will have to work hard to regain the voters that their other opponents had in the previous debates and primaries.
DEMOGRAPHICS:
Although the “blue states,” or democratic-favoring states, are in the majority, there is a chance that by the time election day rolls around, some of those “blue states” could become red. The majority of the democratic votes are coming from the African American population.
According to another recent poll, if 66 percent of the African American voters turn up on Election Day, 93 percent of them would vote for Clinton. However, say only 29 percent of them show up. In this case, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida would become “red states,” which would give Trump the 286 electoral votes he needs to win. This goes to show that even though the race seems predictable, the turnout of different races can drastically change the overall turnout.
THE CANDIDATES:
As previously mentioned, Clinton and her vice president running mate, Tim Kaine, are leading the polls, while Trump and his vice president running mate Governor of Indiana Mike Pence follow. In brief, Clinton wants to enforce different tax breaks and raises to ensure a middle income range, supports broad immigration, take action against climate change, up the game against ISIS, clear any threats from other countries and ban terror watch people from buying guns. There are many other ideas and solutions that Hillary has been sharing throughout her campaign as well.
Meanwhile, as Clinton does her campaigning, Trump is campaigning as well. In brief, Trump supports banning guns from people on terror watch, making a goods tariff with China, fracking, defunding ISIS, building a wall on the border of the U.S. and Mexico and revising U.S. alliances. Like Clinton, Trump has many ideas that he has publicized throughout his campaign.
As these last two months fade away, each candidate has no room for error. The polls could easily change if even a minor mishap occurs. Overall, the 2016 presidential race will be a nail-biting, down-to-the-wire event.